Archive for February 1st, 2008

Microsoft and Ballmer’s Move Signals the Start of the Cold War

By Kyle Austin

By Kyle Austin

Wow! Echoing TechCrunch, this is big.  As Steve Ballmer’s bear hug letter reached Jerry Yang in the wee hours of the morning, the internet age as we knew it was turned upside down.  The monopolistic rule of Google has been altered and we are headed into the “cold war” of the internet age.   

Assuming this unsolicited bid / non-hostile (this could change) takeover happens (It will), the line will be drawn in the sand more clearly then it ever has been before.  You’re either with the folks in Redmond or you’re with the folks in Mountain View and there will be no room for Austria. 

As David Kirkpatrick eloquently notes:  “It (today’s bid) will influence and rearrange the competitive alliances and strategy of just about every company that aspires to a digital future.” 

Google beat everyone to this digital world and has been rolling around in money ever since.  However, since capping at $747 shares in November the stock is currently trading around $515 a share today after announcing that it missed analyst’s predictions for Q4 last night. 

That ingredient may have been the final straw that brought this “non” hostile bid public.  Kara Swisher is now reporting that Ballmer had the wheels in full motion for the takeover on Tuesday after Yahoo! announced its dreary Q4 earnings. Swisher is citing sources that say Ballmer approached Yang on Tuesday with the newest overtures and gave Yahoo! executives two days to respond before going public with the bid.   

Sounds like Yahoo! may have called “bluff” and who really knows if Microsoft honestly planned on going with this on Thursday.  But, after Google announced falling below Q4 earnings, Ballmer had the perfect storm and the ideal time to go public with his bid. 

Don’t think that Google is just laughing this off.  The Valleywag is reporting that Google PR head Elliot Schrage is forbidding all Google employees from discussing a potential Microhoo! competitor. This story will be obsessed over more then the Super Bowl in the next couple days (in the valley anyways).  Here is Boston we’re focused on perfection not the looming cold war.

Add comment February 1st, 2008

Ballmer’s Note to Yahoo! - I’ll Give You $44.6 Billion

By Kyle Austin

From the New York Times

Board of Directors
Yahoo! Inc.
701 First Avenue
Sunnyvale, CA 94089
Attention: Roy Bostock, Chairman
Attention: Jerry Yang, Chief Executive Officer
Dear Members of the Board:

I am writing on behalf of the Board of Directors of Microsoft to make a proposal for a business combination of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Under our proposal, Microsoft would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 based on Microsoft’s closing share price on January 31, 2008, payable in the form of $31 in cash or 0.9509 of a share of Microsoft common stock. Microsoft would provide each Yahoo! shareholder with the ability to choose whether to receive the consideration in cash or Microsoft common stock, subject to pro-ration so that in the aggregate one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be exchanged for shares of Microsoft common stock and one-half of the Yahoo! common shares will be converted into the right to receive cash. Our proposal is not subject to any financing condition.

Our proposal represents a 62% premium above the closing price of Yahoo! common stock of $19.18 on January 31, 2008. The implied premium for the operating assets of the company clearly is considerably greater when adjusted for the minority, non-controlled assets and cash. By whatever financial measure you use - EBITDA, free cash flow, operating cash flow, net income, or analyst target prices - this proposal represents a compelling value realization event for your shareholders.

We believe that Microsoft common stock represents a very attractive investment opportunity for Yahoo!’s shareholders. Microsoft has generated revenue growth of 15%, earnings growth of 26%, and a return on equity of 35% on average for the last three years. Microsoft’s share price has generated shareholder returns of 8% during the last one year period and 28% during the last three year period, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. It is our view that Microsoft has significant potential upside given the continued solid growth in our core businesses, the recent launch of Windows Vista, and other strategic initiatives.

Microsoft’s consistent belief has been that the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! clearly represents the best way to deliver maximum value to our respective shareholders, as well as create a more efficient and competitive company that would provide greater value and service to our customers. In late 2006 and early 2007, we jointly explored a broad range of ways in which our two companies might work together. These discussions were based on a vision that the online businesses of Microsoft and Yahoo! should be aligned in some way to create a more effective competitor in the online marketplace. We discussed a number of alternatives ranging from commercial partnerships to a merger proposal, which you rejected. While a commercial partnership may have made sense at one time, Microsoft believes that the only alternative now is the combination of Microsoft and Yahoo! that we are proposing.

In February 2007, I received a letter from your Chairman indicating the view of the Yahoo! Board that “now is not the right time from the perspective of our shareholders to enter into discussions regarding an acquisition transaction.” According to that letter, the principal reason for this view was the Yahoo! Board’s confidence in the “potential upside” if management successfully executed on a reformulated strategy based on certain operational initiatives, such as Project Panama, and a significant organizational realignment. A year has gone by, and the competitive situation has not improved.

While online advertising growth continues, there are significant benefits of scale in advertising platform economics, in capital costs for search index build-out, and in research and development, making this a time of industry consolidation and convergence. Today, the market is increasingly dominated by one player who is consolidating its dominance through acquisition. Together, Microsoft and Yahoo! can offer a credible alternative for consumers, advertisers, and publishers. Synergies of this combination fall into four areas:

– Scale economics: This combination enables synergies related to scale economics of the advertising platform where today there is only one competitor at scale. This includes synergies across both search and non-search related advertising that will strengthen the value proposition to both advertisers and publishers. Additionally, the combination allows us to consolidate capital spending.

– Expanded R&D capacity: The combined talent of our engineering resources can be focused on R&D priorities such as a single search index and single advertising platform. Together we can unleash new levels of innovation, delivering enhanced user experiences, breakthroughs in search, and new advertising platform capabilities.

Many of these breakthroughs are a function of an engineering scale that today neither of our companies has on its own.

– Operational efficiencies: Eliminating redundant infrastructure and duplicative operating costs will improve the financial performance of the combined entity.

– Emerging user experiences: Our combined ability to focus engineering resources that drive innovation in emerging scenarios such as video, mobile services, online commerce, social media, and social platforms is greatly enhanced.

We would value the opportunity to further discuss with you how to optimize the integration of our respective businesses to create a leading global technology company with exceptional display and search advertising capabilities. You should also be aware that we intend to offer significant retention packages to your engineers, key leaders and employees across all disciplines.

We have dedicated considerable time and resources to an analysis of a potential transaction and are confident that the combination will receive all necessary regulatory approvals. We look forward to discussing this with you, and both our internal legal team and outside counsel are available to meet with your counsel at their earliest convenience.

Our proposal is subject to the negotiation of a definitive merger agreement and our having the opportunity to conduct certain limited and confirmatory due diligence. In addition, because a portion of the aggregate merger consideration would consist of Microsoft common stock, we would provide Yahoo! the opportunity to conduct appropriate limited due diligence with respect to Microsoft. We are prepared to deliver a draft merger agreement to you and begin discussions immediately.

In light of the significance of this proposal to your shareholders and ours, as well as the potential for selective disclosures, our intention is to publicly release the text of this letter tomorrow morning.

Due to the importance of these discussions and the value represented by our proposal, we expect the Yahoo! Board to engage in a full review of our proposal.

My leadership team and I would be happy to make ourselves available to meet with you and your Board at your earliest convenience. Depending on the nature of your response, Microsoft reserves the right to pursue all necessary steps to ensure that Yahoo!’s shareholders are provided with the opportunity to realize the value inherent in our proposal.

We believe this proposal represents a unique opportunity to create significant value for Yahoo!’s shareholders and employees, and the combined company will be better positioned to provide an enhanced value proposition to users and advertisers. We hope that you and your Board share our enthusiasm, and we look forward to a prompt and favorable reply.

Sincerely yours,

/s/ Steven A. Ballmer

Steven A. Ballmer
Chief Executive Officer
Microsoft Corporation

 

Add comment February 1st, 2008

Sergey and Larry See Their Shadow: Ballmer Sees an Opening

By Kyle Austin

By Kyle Austin

 

Sergey and Larry put on a good show but in the end they saw their shadow. 

In Google’s press release which you can see here they do an adequate job of convincing the public of another blowout win: 

Google reported revenues of $4.83 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2007, an increase of 51% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006 and an increase of 14% compared to the third quarter of 2007. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs, or TAC. In the fourth quarter of 2007, TAC totaled $1.44 billion, or 30% of advertising revenues. 

But as Yi-Wyn Yen of Fortune notes the company is finally looking mortal, once you break down the numbers.

“The Mountain-View, Calif.-based company made $4.43 a share for the fourth quarter, which was a penny short of analysts’ consensus. Google raked in a $1.2 billion profit for the quarter, up 17% from a year ago. Sales, minus the money the company shares with its ad partners, came in at $3.39 billion, up 52 percent from the previous period a year ago. The Street had anticipated $3.45 billion and Google’s shares dropped more than 7 percent in after-hours trading to $516.20.”

The most interesting part of the call, which RaceTalk sat in on, was Google’s openness in its failure to monetize its social network initiatives.  This likely centers around a $900 million deal that Google closed with MySpace last year to provide advertising for the social network. Saul Hansell of the New York Times was all over this aspect of the story on the Bits Blog.

As Hansell notes Sergey Brin went as far to say “We have a huge amount of social networking inventory, including the MySpace relationship.  I don’t think we have the killer best way to monetize social networks yet. We are running a lot of experiments and we have had some significant improvements. But some of the things we were counting on in Q4 didn’t pan out. There were some disappointments there.”

Now Hansell notes that sources close to Google note that they never planned to earn the $900 million back from the deal with Rupert Murdoch and MySpace but these statements make it sound that Google is loosing a lot more then they thought. Their trouble monetizing MySpace have others like Tom Foremski of the Silicon Valley Watcher wondering how long it will take Mark Zuckerberg to loose his job at Facebook.

He notes that: “This (Google’s problems with monetizing a social network) increases the challenge for Facebook as it searches for a way to monetize its service without alienating its users. Microsoft’s recent investment in Facebook values it at $15bn, raised the pressure on management to justify that valuation. This is a challenging situation for any CEO of a large media business, especially a 23 year old with no prior experience. Figuring out a sustainable business model that meets Facebook’s $15bn-plus valuation is a top priority for Facebook’s investors. They will likely seek to bring in a new CEO with more experience in the same way Eric Schmidt was brought in to Google.”

Google’s results along with Yahoo!’s shaky results left the technology sector on edge for a few hours and left the door open for Mr. Ballmer to cast Microsoft in the spotlight with a colossal move.

Add comment February 1st, 2008


Feeds

Follow us on Twitter

Add to Technorati Favorites

Calendar

February 2008
M T W T F S S
« Jan   Mar »
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
2526272829  

Authors

Q&A

Most Recent Posts

Categories

Links